The Framework
How we detect, validate, and surface positioning extremes.
Retail crowds. We quantify when they're wrong.
Most sentiment tools show you what retail is doing. That's useful — but it's not enough.
The question isn't "what is positioning?" The question is: when does positioning matter?
After 13 years of data and 4427+ occurrences, we know the answer: when positioning reaches statistical extremes and the crowd is trapped.
Proprietary Positioning Data
Real flow data. Not surveys.
Our patterns are built on actual retail positioning data — real Long% and Short% figures from live trading accounts, updated continuously. This isn't a poll. It's not self-reported. It's flow.
| Metric | What It Measures |
|---|---|
| Long% / Short% | Percentage of retail traders positioned long vs. short |
| Net Position | Directional imbalance of the retail crowd |
| Z-Score | Statistical deviation from normal positioning — how extreme is this? |
74 FX pairs tracked.
We don't disclose our data source. Proprietary access is part of the edge.
Pattern Detection
When multiple signals align, we pay attention.
A single extreme can be noise. When independent measures confirm each other — and the crowd is trapped — that's structural. That's when we recognize a pattern.
Our detection requires:
- 1Short-term extreme — Positioning is statistically unusual
- 2Longer-term confirmation — The extreme is structural, not a blip
- 3Directional agreement — Multiple signals point the same way
- 4Fresh setup — The extreme just formed, not stale
When all conditions align, we fade the crowd. They're long? We sell. They're short? We buy.
SWIFT / PULSE / ANCHOR
Three configurations. Same edge. Different character.
SWIFT
Balanced frequency. Intraday resolution.
1,119 trades · 83.2% WR · +50 pips
Core workhorse.
PULSE
Highest frequency. Fastest cycle.
2,127 trades · 81.8% WR · +40 pips
Most signals. Independent window.
ANCHOR
Lowest frequency. Strongest per-trade edge.
306 trades · 79.7% WR · +51 pips
Patient capital.
Momentum Contradiction
The difference between 77.7% and 83.7%.
Not all extremes are equal. We check whether recent price momentum contradicts the crowd's positioning — or aligns with it.
When the crowd is long but price is falling (or the crowd is short but price is rising), those traders are trapped. That's a high-conviction fade.
Example: Retail is 78% long EUR/USD. Price trend is bearish. Crowd is long into a falling market — they're trapped. We fade with high conviction.
| Conviction | Condition | Win Rate | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | Momentum contradicts crowd | 83.7% | ~63.4% |
| STANDARD | Momentum aligns with crowd | 77.7% | ~36.6% |
Delta: +6 percentage points. Every pattern is labeled with its conviction level.
Per-Pattern Performance Tiers
Not every pair is equal. We track them separately.
Each instrument earns its tier independently based on historical win rate and sample size. A pair doesn't inherit credibility from the aggregate — it proves itself or stays in validation.
| Tier | Criteria | Patterns |
|---|---|---|
| ULTRA | ≥ 90% win rate, significant history | 24 |
| PREMIUM | 80–89% win rate, proven track record | 31 |
| STANDARD | 75–79% win rate, sufficient history | 11 |
| VALIDATING | Promising, building history | 8 |
74 active patterns across 28 FX pairs. Tiers reflect actual performance, not marketing.
13 Years of Data
We publish everything. Including the bad years.
| Year | Trades | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 264 | 92.8% |
| 2015 | 274 | 89.8% |
| 2016 | 329 | 84.2% |
| 2017 | 334 | 83.2% |
| 2018 | 301 | 83.1% |
| 2019 | 270 | 85.2% |
| 2020 | 214 | 76.2% |
| 2021 | 287 | 86.8% |
| 2022 | 308 | 78.9% |
| 2023 | 297 | 78.1% |
| 2024 | 322 | 72% |
| 2025 | 295 | 75.6% |
| 2026 | 57 | 80.7% |
Combined: 4427+ trades, 81.5% win rate. t-statistic: 16–19 (highly significant).
What's not in the framework.
In earlier versions, we experimented with additional metrics: velocity, exhaustion, regime detection, cross-asset correlation. We removed them.
They didn't survive validation.
What survived validation is what you see. Everything else was noise.
We'd rather give you one thing that's validated than ten things that look impressive but don't hold up.
What You Get
Intelligence, not indicators.
Real-Time Dashboard
Live positioning data, z-scores, active patterns, conviction levels, and per-pattern performance tiers — all in one interface. No spreadsheets. No manual calculations.
Daily Intelligence Report
Every day, a structured summary of what's extreme, what's approaching extreme, and what patterns are active — delivered before markets open.
API Access
Programmatic access to patterns, positioning data, and historical performance for integration into your own systems. See the API Reference →